Amy Verdun, University of Victoria
March 25, 2025
With the bellicose language from the United States (US) bombarding Canadians on a daily basis, it is perhaps little surprise that there are voices in Canada that talk about what the options are for Canada. For many years, Canadians have enjoyed strong and friendly relations with the US that has met many of the needs of Canadians. Since the Donald Trump took office as the 47th President of the US, the language towards Canada has become much more negative. In response, there have been some persons who have argued that Canada might want to join the European Union (EU) – an entity with 27 member states that has a single market, as single currency, a single trade policy towards third countries, and has developed strong regulation many areas of policy-making. Would it make sense for Canada to join the EU, or draw closer?
More than 80% of Canadian international trade is with the United States. There are now tariffs on some products and those tariffs might be further expanded. Following the signing and provisional application of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), there are virtually no tariffs on goods traded between Canada and the EU. According to Global Affairs Canada, prior to the agreement only 25% of the goods were duty free. Thus, if the tariffs between Canada and the US ratchet up, Canadians business could take more advantage of the opportunity to trade with Europe.
But just having a trade agreement, would that be enough? One reason that Europeans have started to integrate with one another was to avoid another war. Following the devastation of the Second World War, and the fact that nations had been going to war with one another many times prior to that, the idea that “democratic nations that trade with one another freely will be less likely to go to war” was a major motivation for European states to deepen integration. Hence, as the US President was repeating his mantra that Canada could become the 51st state of the United States of America, the former German foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel suggested that Canada could join the EU (Deutschlandradio, 23 January 2025).
If Canada were to join the EU, it would have to collaborate in many more areas than merely trade. Deeper collaboration with Europe would only be possible and desirable if Canadians are interested in accepting European rules on a range of issues. In turn, Canada would be at the table when new rules and regulations would be made. In the run-up to such a scenario, Canadians would need take the trouble to learn more about what it is that Europe does. After all, the EU has strong regulation in the area of consumer protection, chemicals, and digital privacy. At the same time, joining the EU could not happen over night. To become a member would mean being part of lengthy negotiations on a host of different topics. Enlargement negotiations with the EU typically are done “chapter-by-chapter”, meaning that different issues are dealt with separately. To start and end these negotiations, all EU member states (and Canada) would have a veto (all would have to approve). All parliaments would have to agree to the agreement as well.
It is probably the most important that Canada and the EU see whether they can either push the CETA agreement to full ratification rather than concentrate on EU membership, which might take a long time. Alternatively, perhaps the two can explore areas in which they are able to collaborate more closely. The EU is more than a customs union. It is a single market, but it also collaborates in a number of regulatory domains. Whether collaborating that intensely with Europeans may be of interest is something that warrants a proper debate. If the US keeps on being very bellicose, Canada may want to get considerably closer to the EU, which in many ways shares the values that Canada holds dear.
References:
Deutschlandradio (23 January 2025) “After threats from Trump. Former German Foreign Minister Gabriel proposes Canada’s EU membership”.
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